Plug-ins and auto shows: A runway event that’s making sense

The solar-roofed Smart Forvision plug-in concept

There have been a number of vehicle previews ahead of the Frankfurt Auto Show that have been built upon plug-in drivetrains. Unfortunately, automakers have no intention to build most of these concepts. Instead, these vehicles serve as expressions of new design languages, and models to display upcoming technological trends, albeit trends not limited to plug-ins.

Regardless, despite the reality that most of these concepts are not production-intended, they are beginning to demonstrate some very poignant and important topics regarding the future.

Sure, the new curves and design lines expressed by these concepts, and to be featured to some extent in upcoming vehicles, are interesting. Good design can be a critical sale’s tool. Besides Auto Shows are akin to a fashion show in many respects. It’s not reality that is necessarily critical, it’s the myth of possibility.

Fortunately, the story being told by these new concepts is becoming much more realistic than it might seem at first glance. It’s not just about ’shock and awe’, it’s about form meeting the function of the future.

One-seaters, two-seaters, carbon-fiber, plastic wheels, cloud-connectedness, temperature reducing paint, embedded solar panels. Those are just some of the features have already been revealed ahead of the Frankfurt show via new concept vehicles, and many of these elements will find themselves in upcoming cars, such as cloud-connectedness and plastic wheels.

Other features will, of course, take longer to incorporate into new cars sales.

More important, however, many of these new concepts are challenging the entire notion of what personal transportation is, or at least what it could be in the future. Small, light single-seat vehicles, for instance, straight out of Tron.

While such concepts don’t fully resonate today, particularly outside of Gen Y, these ideas almost certainly offer a very real glimpse of the future.

Inevitably, congestion and limited resources will demand that these out-of-the-box concepts become reality. Sure, these cars probably won’t be enough by themselves. Instead, they’ll need to be coupled with new business models of car ownership, such as sharing. But the direction is inevitable.

Like it or not, believe it or not, but urban mobility is poised for great change — I’d bet within the decade — and at least conceptually, automakers seem to understand. What’s really going to separate the women from the girls is execution, or more precisely, daring to execute such a direction ahead of the pack.

Many pieces of a new automotive future are out there, now it’s time to start putting the puzzle together.

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Labor Day car shopping: Best hybrid deals

Altima hybrid a top deal this Labor Day

On the way out to the Labor Day parade and barbecue this weekend, many Americans will also fit in a trip to their local car dealership to check out the deals, as Labor Day is traditionally known as one of the best car shopping holidays of the year.

And heading into the weekend, one hybrid is one of the best deals nationwide, at least according to Consumer Reports.

So, if you’re in the market for a new car with an interest in a hybrid or plug-in vehicle, then you have to at least check out the Nissan Altima hybrid this weekend. Because the current Altima hybrid, based on Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive, is being discontinued in preparation for an Altima hybrid built upon Nissan’s new proprietary hybrid drive, now is the time to move old inventory.

Aside from the Altima hybrid, I’ve noticed one dealership in my neighborhood, for example, offering the Hyundai Sonata hybrid for $2900 off MSRP. Likewise, the Toyota Prius hybrid can be picked up for $0 down, with a new lease, although the lease deals aren’t as good as they were earlier this year. So, I might try to negotiate a better payment on a Prius lease, but if I didn’t receive what I wanted, I’d wait a few months for Prius supplies to increase a bit more.

As they say with any car shopping, know what deal you are looking for, and be ready to walk away if you’re not satisfied.

Additionally, while the Toyota Camry hybrid didn’t make CR’s list, the rest of the Camry family did. Since the new 2012 Camry — including an upgraded hybrid version — is due by October, I’d imagine that dealers with healthy stocks of Camry hybrids will also be willing to bargain on that model in anticipation of new inventory.

Finally, if you’re willing to consider a plug-in, such as the Chevy Volt or Nissan Leaf, federal and state tax credits continue to make both vehicles a pretty good deal.

Overall, there are some hybrid deals to be had out there this Labor Day weekend, but don’t feel pressured to buy. Hybrid supplies are increasing and several new models are on the way. As we head towards the end of the year, new deals are sure to emerge.

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Toyota Prius sales: Supplies definitely increasing

Prius supplies continue to improve

Last month Toyota sold 9,491 Toyota Prius hybrid cars, up from 7,907 in July, which was a big increase over the previous month. So, Prius supplies continue to increase, and appear to be on track for a full recovery in the next few months.

Lexus hybrid sales, on the other hand, were actually up.

While Toyota’s total hybrid sales were down 17.4 percent in August compared to the same period later year, Lexus hybrids were up 56.1 percent, achieving a total of 3,238 total sales.

The Prius isn’t fully back, but it’s close.

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VW Nils follows Audi’s urban concepts, but to anywhere?

Maybe a hybrid version would be better?

The Volkswagen Nils single seat urban electric vehicle follows in the wheels of Audi’s new urban plug-in concepts:  small, light, technologically advanced plug-in vehicles.

Unfortunately, while these urban concepts make a ton of theoretical sense, they are still missing some key points.

Most notably, like the Audi concepts, the Nils only achieves about 40 miles of range. That’s just not enough, especially when all the exotic technologies and materials used in the Nils are certain to push the price quite high based on the size and range of these concepts. Such small vehicles need to have similarly sized prices, and much better range, otherwise there is no chance to move beyond the fringes of niches.

So, why not a hybrid version, or even a turbo-charged clean diesel? Both would relieve range anxiety and probably offer significantly cheaper costs until a battery breakthrough makes such EVs more cost-effective.

Basically, why not get serious about such commuting possibilities, now? Don’t make the concept dependent upon exotic materials and technologies. Start shaping consumer perspectives now.

Nevertheless, some time in the future, these concepts will resonate. Most interesting, they already offer great potential for car sharing, for instance, but not with only 40 miles or less range. That’s just too much anxiety.

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300 sales: Kinks in Chevy Volt production?

Cruze all about sales, Volt all about marketing?

Back in June GM shut down Chevy Volt production to upgrade manufacturing capabilities, enabling GM to produce more Volts, as well as some Opel Ampera’s – Europe’s version of the Volt. By mid July, everything was supposed to be back online, and GM was aiming to produce up to 16,000 Volts by the end of 2011, although only about 10,000 were intended for consumers.

Yet, GM only delivered 300 Volts in August.

According to GM, 3,172 Volts have been delivered so far in 2011. That’s almost 7,000 vehicles short of very conservative 2011 goals.

Early last month I called August a benchmark month for Volt sales. Good thing that was my call, not GM’s. Otherwise, some real questions about the Chevy Volt would have to be asked.

Inevitably, it’s obvious there are still some kinks in the Volt production system. Fortunately, that’s not necessarily surprising, as the Volt is a new technology. Moreover, since the earthquake in Japan, there have been many supply chain disruptions throughout the auto industry.

Still, I was expecting at least 1000 Volt sales in August.

While I’m confident GM will eventually work out the kinks in the Volt’s production system, these continued sluggish sales do suggest that the Volt wasn’t really ready for its launch late last year. Again, considering the technology involved that’s not necessarily surprising, nor a major corporate sin, but it does renew the argument that the Volt is much more about marketing than it is about sales, or actual change, at least for the foreseeable future.

Fortunately, for GM at least, Chevy Cruze sales have bailed the General out.

To be sure, GM might still hit its 10,000 vehicle Volt benchmark, and if they do, this will all be water under the dam. However, considering the hype that preceded the Volt into the market, and the hype at its launch, sales thus far can only be described as disappointing.

Source: GM

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Should the US have an energy independence plan?

Is Congress motivated by the people or by reelection?

The European Commission today is actively seeking to develop a plan to move away from oil towards alternative fuels in the EU, most recently launching a public consultation on the matter.

Should the US, via a non-partisan forum, also be investigating a straightforward, honest and transparent plan towards US energy independence?

According to some, such as the Council on Foreign Relations, concepts like energy independence are a waste of energy  — no pun intended. Essentially, according to the Council, there is simply no way to end US dependence upon foreign oil in the next few decades, and thinking beyond that is just too far into the future. Hence, the Council suggests that all foreign oil-reducing opportunities need to be utilized, including natural gas, new drilling, fuel efficiency and batteries.

Unfortunately, the Council concludes, those promoting energy independence typically only advocate one technology or pathway, such as new drilling, natural gas or plug-in vehicles. By only focusing on one; however, the Council argues that foreign oil dependence is only guaranteed to be greater than it needs to be, longer than it needs to be.

Others, such as John Stossel, have in the past argued that ideas like energy independence don’t make sense because they are anti-free trade, which means that Americans are stuck with alternatives that leave the US at an economic disadvantage compared to our competitors in the world, especially our emerging competition from Brazil, Russia, India and China. Instead, Stossel argues that free markets achieve the best solutions.

While I understand, and even somewhat concur with Stossel’s point, it’s kind of funny talking about free markets in the energy space when cartels like OPEC and nationalized oil companies, or NOCs, owned by countries like Russia and China are the major players in the energy game. Nevertheless, I do believe that governments, like the US, need to focus on breeding competition when it comes to energy and efficiency, rather than trying to picking winning technologies in some attempt to predict the future.

Likewise, I concur with the Council on Foreign Relations that energy independence is too far beyond the scope of average Americans and; therefore, somewhat distracting. When most voters don’t even know what the legacy effect is nor how it impacts the energy conversation, how can they have a clue regarding the immense difficulty of achieving energy independence? Thus, it’s too easy for politicians to convince many average Americans that just new drilling or just plug-in hybrid cars offer a real plan to timely foreign oil independence, despite the fact it’s so obvious they do not, at least not individually.

Nevertheless, I believe that US energy independence is not only theoretically plausible, but achievable far sooner than the Council believes — if, and only if, the US attacked foreign oil dependence in a non-political, united effort. Think war effort. And it is war, whether we’re talking about Persian Gulf tensions, or economic warfare, with the later probably being the greater long term concern.

Still, even achieving energy independence doesn’t mean the US

Likewise, achieving energy independence will require new trade as well. For example, there isn’t one mainstream car in the US that was manufactured using only US-based resources, and more sustainable and efficient transport solutions will even require further world trade.

Moreover, if the US was capable of achieving energy independence, we’d have a lot more bargaining power in the energy markets. In fact, a move towards US energy independence might be cause for an extension of NAFTA and lead to a new SAFTA, or South American Free Trade Agreement. In fact, AFTA might bring energy independence to all of America far sooner than any other plan, while also creating a partnership for ever more sustainable energy tomorrow, in a win-win for all American countries.

The point is, one day technology will basically enable the US to become sustainably energy independent, and it’ll be more cost-effective than the status quo,

But without a goal and an honest, transparent, step-by-step — yet adaptable — plan to achieve the goal, the US is simply wasting time and resources by enabling politicians and lobbyists to promote self-serving, pork-filled agendas, when it’s obvious to anyone objective, that there are no simple solutions. Sure, that’s a great con for the 87 percent of Congress that most Americans can’t stand to exploit, but it’s not good for the people.

Besides, America shouldn’t be defined by our dysfunctional two party system, but by democracy, by the voice of the people, especially in today’s computer-connected world. Consequently, if a non-partisan report can transparently quantify that energy independence would be a win for most Americans, what’s the downside? Real political change?

It’s time to take the politics out of energy because at the end of the day, only a great compromise can achieve real change. While sustainability is the undeniable future, things like new gas engines, natural gas, even new drilling, might be the only tools that can provide a cost-effective enough bridge to that sustainable future.

In summary, a plan for US energy independence is long over due.

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Gartner Group study questions Germany’s plug-in focus

Car sharing just as important as plug-in vehicles?

While the Frankfurt Auto Show will be a forum for many new hybrid and plug-in vehicles, a new consumer survey suggests that most German consumers aren’t nearly as bullish as the German government regarding such vehicles.

Consequently, Gartner suggests that Germany should reconsider its largely singular focus on plug-ins and also include alternatives, such as new engine technologies, car sharing, public transportation, etc.

According to Gartner’s latest survey only “16 percent of Germans would consider buying a battery car, compared with 52 percent who want gasoline power, 43 percent hybrids, 37 percent diesel and 25 percent natural gas motors,” according to the DetroitNews.

Also, the keyword is ‘consider’. As US studies have proven, real world sales are far different than ‘consider’ percentages. For example, numerous studies have for a few years now also suggested that a majority of Americans would ‘consider’ buying a hybrid. Yet, less than 3 percent actually purchase hybrid cars.

Consequently, Gartner analyst and survey author Thilo Koslowski expects plug-ins to achieve just 3 percent of global marketshare by 2020 because of plug-in costs, range limitations, etc.

Fortunately, sometime after 2020, Koslowski has higher hopes for plug-ins.

Sometime in the ’20’s Koslowski expects a battery breakthrough that could significantly increase plug-in sales by significantly reducing battery costs. Even then, however, Koslowski doesn’t expect plug-ins to dominate the automotive landscape. In fact, Koslowski even suggests that automakers might even be wasting time and resources trying to develop plug-in cars that offer the same range and costs of conventional vehicles when other paths might be cheaper, but just as beneficial.

“Governments (like in Germany) are putting all their money on electric vehicles, when there might be other ways,” Koslowski said. “Instead of just subsidizing battery cars, why not split it off and spend it on public transportation, car sharing, give them a free bicycle, why be so limited in terms of what might work?”

Most interesting, in my opinion, is that younger buyers are more open to thinking outside of the box. While that’s a no-duh observation, why isn’t more being done to capitalize on this openness, whether in Germany or in America?

Younger buyers are more receptive to both plug-ins and car sharing, for instance. Thus, while they might not be able to afford to buy a plug-in, they might still be perfect plug-in car sharers — so why not some kind of incentive to share, rather than buy?

Ultimately, young consumers offer the opportunity to break the mold of urban mobility, and governments should be focusing on every opportunity to do just that — as cost-effectively and competitively as possible.

Source: DetroitNews

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BYD Automotive: Is the dream over?

BYD plug-in success in the US seems far-fetched today

When Warren Buffett made a major investment in BYD Automotive several years ago, it seemed the future of plug-in vehicles, particularly Chinese plug-in vehicles, was clearly secure. The oracle of Omaha had spoken.

But, based on reports coming out of China, Buffett might have to think

AutoObserver is claiming that as many as 1800 of BYD Automotive’s 2600 employees could soon be either fired or laid off. For now, however, BYD is officially denying the report. Instead, BYD is only reporting that a restructuring is in the works. Regardless, it’s clear that BYD sales are sputtering badly.

And, with the US government convinced that BYD is stealing secrets from other automakers, for instance, any hope of BYD cars finding success in markets like the US seems slim.

One can probably expect that the Chinese government will keep BYD in the automotive game, but a pin has been poked into dreaming BYD. Reality just isn’t on the same page.

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Ford Evos plug-in hybrid: The new face of Ford

The new look of Ford

The smoking-hot Ford Evos plug-in hybrid is one of those concept vehicles that will probably never see the light of day. The Evos wasn’t really designed for production, but rather to express the future of Ford’s design language.

And that future is said to begin in about 4 months time.

“We need to be immediately recognizable by the face of our vehicles,” Ford design vice president J Mays recently stated, according to AutoWeek. And what Ford is trying to exude via the Evos concept is premium-feeling mainstream cars.

Still, while the Evos might never make its way through one of Ford’s production lines, there is speculation that Ford will reveal a more production-orientated Evos inspired vehicle at the Detroit Auto Show. Moreover, the Evos is eventually going to inspire the style of all future Ford vehicles.

That means in addition to the new curves, future Ford products will be decked out with Evos-styled grills and headlights.

But the Evos is also about more than looks, it’s also about a new generation of Sync-based connectivity. The Evos is tapped into the cloud, and Ford intends to bring the cloud to all of its future products.

Plug-in technologies, futuristic connectivity and some stylish new curves, the new face of Ford is pretty exciting.

Source: AutoWeek

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Is it time for diesel hybrids in the US?

Why not diesel hybrids, such as the 508 RXH?

Already several hybrid and plug-in hybrid concepts and production vehicles have been revealed ahead of the Frankfurt Auto Show, and one of the latest reveals is the production-ready Peugeot 508 RXH diesel hybrid. For now the 200 hp, 56 mpg RXH hybrid is set for a Spring European launch, with no plans for a US appearance.

Nevertheless, with diesel share making small gains in the US, isn’t a diesel hybrid like the RXH worth a try?

To be certain, in some US markets, diesel is a tough sell because of higher costs compared to gasoline, but that’s not the case in all US markets. Moreover, forecasters, such as JD Power, are predicting even greater diesel share over the course of the next decade, so why not make some of those diesel offerings hybrids?

Obviously, diesel hybrid vehicles aren’t THE solution for the future of the US auto industry, but it’s going to be decades before THE solution dominates the US auto industry. In the interim, why not give US consumers some real powertrain choices when it comes to diesel offerings?

3:37 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Ciel, ELR and even more hybrids coming to Cadillac

ELR ready for a next generation Volt battery pack

The Cadillac Ciel plug-in hybrid, or at least a car built on the Ciel’s Omega platform, is almost a done deal and should be given the go-ahead before year’s end. While details are still scant, GM has decided it needs a new flagship to put Cadillac back in the same conversation with Lexus, BMW and Mercedes Benz.

And, the new plug-in flagship will also be flanked by the ELR, a Chevy Volt-based ranged extended electric vehicle, and several new hybrids.

Beyond the Cadillac ELR, GM is providing few details. In terms of the ELR plug-in, the production car should look pretty much like the Converj concept; however, it will utilize a “significantly updated” version of the Volt’s powertrain. Most significant, the ELR will use a more powerful battery pack than the Volt that will enable either greater range, performance, or both.

On the other hand, for now, GM isn’t even certain whether the Omega-based flagship will be a convertible or a conventional sedan. Likewise, in terms of future Cadillac hybrid cars, all GM is willing to say is that they are “likely” coming and that GM will use more than one hybrid technology.

And, really, such plans aren’t that surprising. Luxury hybrids are significant theme these days in the auto industry.

Source: MSNBC

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Lotus set to mainstream iStream and revolutionize urban transportation?

The T.27 going through crash tests.

Out of the box thinking is probably the key to the future of the auto industry. Inevitably, the current model of mobile transportation is a resource intensive, energy guzzling dinosaur. And automotive “engineer, designer and entrepreneur” Gordon Murray, of McLaren F1 supercar fame, clearly recognizes that fact.

And that makes his new position on the Lotus board quite intriguing.

As of late, Mr. Murray has been working on his iStream automotive manufacturing process, or “a complete rethink and redesign of the traditional automotive manufacturing process.” Essentially, Murry wants to make urban cars cheaper and greener to manufacture and operate.

By ‘thinking light’, Murray believes that iStream can reduce urban congestion, parking problems and CO2 emissions  — oh yeah, and energy consumption — while also reducing costs.

Already, Murray’s ideas have been translated into the T.25 gasoline car and the T.27 plug-in electric car — two cars that Murray has actively shopped for manufacturing partnerships. Is Lotus now set to be that manufacturer of choice? It seems a perfect fit since Lotus also likes to to follow the ‘think light’ mantra.

Anyway, I’m probably being overly presumptuous and optimistic, but I’m definitely looking forward to following Lotus forward to see what kind of impact Murray can have upon Lotus. Maybe, just maybe, Lotus is on the verge of something truly revolutionary.

Sources: NYTimes and Gordon Murray Designs

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Peugeot HX1 plug-in: Just another luxury hybrid, but still awesome

Is it a plug-in, a transformer, or both?

I know, I know. If not for rich people, average joes would never have been able to afford cell phones and flat screen TVs. God bless the rich people! Although I wonder, did the government ever offer massive tax incentives and subsidies for cell phone and flat screen purchases?

Anyway, we live in volatile times, especially when it comes to energy. And while many years, maybe even decades, of rich EV purchases might eventually offer scaling potential that trickles down to the rest of us, don’t volatile energy markets require more cost-effective solutions, now?

But enough of that foreign oil dependency nonsense, because the HX1 is one smoking hot ride.

“The slippery shape of the HX1, which boasts an ultra-low 0.28 coefficient of drag, is enhanced by active aerodynamics, notably a rear spoiler and side skirts that deploy at speeds above 62 mph. The seven-spoke turbine-style wheels also reconfigure themselves at higher speeds to help reduce drag,” notes InsideLine.

Wheels that reconfigure themselves? Is this a car or a transformer?

Then there are the four scissors-style doors and the retractable middle row of seats that can transform the HX1 into a 6 seat vehicle. Awesome! And coming soon to an econobox you can afford soon. Well, maybe.

Not enough? How ’bout a natural oak interior — culled from a sustainable oak tree farm no doubt — coffee machine and minibar? Would you like whipped cream with that cappuccino? A shot of Tuaca?

All that and 73 mpg, on average, or 18.6 miles of pure electricity? You’re not just rich, you’re green, buddy.

I want one. I’ll just sell my house and move in. 73 mpg, minibar, coffee machine. What else does one really need? Maybe a retractable solar powered carport? Throw that in and it’s a done deal.

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Audi’s small, light EVs both interesting and nonsensical

The future of urban drag-racing?

At first glance Audi’s new urban concept vehicles, set to debut at the Frankfurt Auto Show, are real attention grabbers, whether you love ‘em or hate ‘em.

Are they modern day go-carts, or cool urban sports coupes that hark back to the days of drive-ins and poodle skirts — and souped up racers?

Either way you look at them, these new carbon-fiber wrapped plug-in electric cars beg a number of questions.

Can small cars — regardless of powertrain — become a much bigger mix of the automaker portfolio? The answer to that question seems obvious. With CO2 regulations and fuel economy requirements increasing in many key auto markets throughout the world, downsizing is going to be a key driver of the future.

Consequently, can carbon fiber help decrease weight, in addition to making smaller cars more safe? Again, the answer to that question seems obvious. However, can carbon fiber achieve this role cost-effectively?

Unfortunately, thus far, carbon fiber still seems to be most mentioned in luxury circles, such as Audi, BMW and Lexus.

And, finally, what is the required range of a small, urban sports coupe? Is 31 – 37 miles even in the ballpark?

If, for example, these new concepts are perceived to be nothing more than glorified electric golf carts for local travel through your gated community, for instance, then maybe 30-something miles is sufficient. But a real world electric urban car with only 31 miles of EV range seems a silly notion, unless easily implemented dynamic charging has been invented, and the EV is priced well under $10,000.

Whether you like the Spyder version pictured above, or the similar coupe version, which offers a retractable canopy; however, neither seem to suggest a sub-$10,000 price tag.

Of course, these are just concepts meant to show new trends and design languages for the future of Audi, and let’s be honest, if you want consumers to enjoy downsizing, automakers are going to have to make smaller cars more exciting. To that end, these concepts work, but they fail as EVs, at least based upon their current range.

Perhaps the most noteworthy takeaways are Audi’s commitment to carbon-fiber as a critical element of a new line of small, fun compact cars for urban dwellers that don’t necessarily need a lot of car for their daily commute, just a fun way to take the bore out of the daily commute.

Source: AutoWeek

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Did the 2012 Honda Civic hybrid catch up to the Toyota Prius?

2012 Honda Civic hybrid, best Civic hybrid ever

The Honda Civic Hybrid and the Toyota Prius have been going at it for a quite a few years now, and according to the sale’s numbers the Prius is king. Ultimately, the Prius has offered better fuel economy, more functionality, and a more unique look.

However, the 2012 Honda Civic hybrid has undergone a pretty significant transformation, but can it yet match up to the Prius?

That’s what a bunch of InsideLine editors recently tried to find out. So, they put the revamped, lithium-powered Honda Civic hybrid and the 2011 Prius through the paces, testing each vehicle on the track and, more interesting, in the real world via the daily commutes of several editors.

Since we’re talking about hybrid cars, fuel economy is obviously a critical benchmark, and it appears the Civic hybrid is catching up to the Prius. InsideLine testing still found the Prius to be the leader; however, the Prius only beat the Civic by 1 mpg, although a speedy freeway drive sucked a good chunk of mpgs out of the Prius average.

Keep the Prius in the city, and it offers clear mpg advantages over the Civic hybrid. Put these hybrids in more highway-like conditions, however, and the Civic hybrid is a real challenger.

And that takes us to drive quality, and there the Civic hybrid has also improved quite a bit compared to the previous Civic. Nevertheless, noise at high speeds is still a problem, and the drivetrain is still far too choppy. The Prius, on the other hand, still offers a more refined drive via the more seamless Hybrid Synergy Drive, as well as a more functional cabin that feels incredibly spacious.

Consequently, once again, the Prius wins, at least according to the editors at InsideLine. But, the Civic hybrid is catching up, and if your commute isn’t too congested, it’s definitely worth giving the Civic hybrid a test drive if you’re in the market.

Source: InsideLine

10:08 AM | 0 comments | Read More

The car of the future seems less and less predictable

Catching up to the Jetsons?

Want to spend less money on gasoline, but can’t afford a new, more fuel efficient car. No worries. A new Smartphone app can reduce your fueling costs by 20 percent according to a new MIT/Princeton study.

And that’s just the beginning of how the cloud is going to fundamentally change the auto industry — maybe even far more than the plug ever will.

In fact, do we really know for sure the plug is the future of the auto industry?

Today, companies like Virent are creating biogasoline from plant based sugars that appear to work harmlessly in conventional cars, or Virent can bioreform the sugars into hydrogen to be used in fuel cell vehicles. Others are trying to skip the plants altogether and instead mimic plants via artificial photosynthesis to create liquid fuels — a process that can be 10 – 40 times more efficient than using plants, at least based on today’s emerging technologies.

The truth is, there are potential breakthroughs in numerous technologies that could radically impact the way we power our cars, but I wonder, will we really care about what powers the cars of the future? Or will the user experience be all that matters?

Using a smartphone to reduce fuel consumption is just scratching the surface of where telematics and the cloud our going to take personal transportation.

“Gartner predicts that by 2016 consumers will demand Web-centric data connectivity in their cars, which will lead to new consumer experiences and address sustainability, digital convergence and mobility trends,” notes Microsoft’s Michael Kogeler in Forecast For The Auto Industry: Dense Cloud Coverage.

Our cars will tell us how to save fuel, how to avoid traffic accidents — even help prevent accidents — while providing immense entertainment opportunities, and that’s just in the next few years. Actually, it’s already happening. Further down the road, cars will even drive themselves. Perhaps, because of all this web connectivity and this new user experience, commuters might not want to drive, it’ll be viewed as a waste of time, especially if congestion forecasts come true.

To live in interesting times, they say, is critical to a good life. When it comes to the auto industry, we live in very interesting times as numerous technologies, once divergent, are now converging in a way that will radically and fundamentally change the automobile and personal transportation.

1:03 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Plug-in charging rights: EVs versus PHEVs

If you can't get home without a charge, you should've bought a pure EV

Who has more rights to a public charging station, pure battery electric plug-ins, such as the Nissan Leaf that have limited range, or plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevy Volt, which can always just use gasoline power?

That’s become the issue regarding California Assembly Bill 475 that is once again pitting GM against pure electric car advocates and owners.

Range anxiety? It’s a non-issue with the Chevy Volt, right? That’s why the Volt was created in the first place, to overcome range anxiety. So, whom has more right to a public plug-in charging station, someone in a Volt that just wants free electricity, or someone in a Nissan Leaf that isn’t going to make it home without a charge?

Seriously, should the Volt even have access to public charging stations? Of course it should, but let’s be honest, pure EVs need public chargers more than Volts do.

Anyway, EV Charger Law Spawning New GM Image Woes? , an AutoObserver article, covers this very interesting debate going on in California, which is headed to the Governor’s office.

Nevertheless, here’s my take. First, there should be no such thing as free public charging, except during non-peak hours, PERIOD. If a business wants to offer free charging, that’s fine, but a state like California that is many billions of dollars in debt should not. The federal government is already offering up a huge tax credit, as are many states, like California, to help subsidize the purchase of plug-in vehicles.

If that’s not enough, then plug-ins are a joke upon the US energy independence movement, at least until a major battery breakthrough is achieved, and even worse, a clever distraction.

But, take this idea and shove it

The idea of giving away free electricity during peak hours is offensive, inefficient and even counter-productive to the point of plug-ins, especially to someone whom has survived numerous brownouts and blackouts. Sure, it might work to entice more early adopters, but it isn’t a model to be carried forward. It’s just another policy that kicks the can of real energy issues down the road.

Ultimately, plug-in drivers need to work with the companies they work for, the businesses they visit, etc. to create smart-charging COOPs, for instance, and other arrangements, especially ones focused on renewable energy. Either way, smart charging offers numerous options for both businesses and end users — plug-in drivers — to fairly share costs, or even profits.

At the end of the day There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch. And, without at least some respect to TINSTAAFL, plug-ins will remain niche toys for upper class, college-educated, white folk. And that’s just not the path to the kind of revolution that plug-ins are capable of leading.

3:42 PM | 0 comments | Read More

Like China, should the US reconsider plug-in tax credits?

America needs to Focus on more than plug-ins

The latest word coming out of China suggests that significant changes to tax policies for new energy vehicles are coming. Instead, of focusing on plug-ins, China is preparing to incentivize hybrid sales, and other fuel efficient technologies.

Should the US consider a similar, and possibly more competitive, policy? For instance, would a $2000 clean vehicle tax credit be better than just a tax credit for plug-in vehicles?

For instance, what if all vehicles that achieved at least 40 mpg combined, qualified for a single $2000 tax credit, plug-ins included?

While plug-in fans probably wouldn’t be over-joyed, might not overall emissions and foreign oil dependence be reduced much more and much sooner than just relying on plug-ins? And shouldn’t that be the primary goal?

Add a $2000 tax credit to 2012 Toyota Camry pricing, and the Camry hybrid might become the top selling Camry — the top selling car in the US. That would be a game-changer. Imagine the competition between the Camry, Ford Fusion, Hyundai Sonata, Honda Accord, Chevy Malibu, etc. if the Camry hybrid achieved 41 mpg combined and qualified for a $2000 tax credit. Sure the Camry LE would still be cheaper upfront, but not by much after the tax credit, and the fuel economy savings would be too massive for a significant percentage of consumers not to realize.

Plus, long term, all those Camry hybrids could be converted into plug-in hybrids if a battery breakthrough is achieved.

Similarly, according to current pricing models, GM’s mild hybrid technology, or eAssist, adds about $2000 to the price of a vehicle. Thus, GM could add this technology to numerous models to bring fuel economy up to 40 mpg combined, such as the Chevy Cruze, without any additional costs to consumers.

And I bet a $2000 discount on a Toyota Prius or a Honda Insight would also drive sales a lot higher as well.

But, it’s not just battery powered vehicles.

Small cars, such as VW’s Up! would qualify. So too might the natural gas Honda Civic, if some kind of mpg equivalent were created.

Likewise, maybe a similar tax credit for pickups could be offered for those pickups that achieve a combined 30 mpg — Ford’s EcoBoost and a few other tweaks could probably get full-sized pickup trucks close today. Minimally, EcoBoost would get the Ford Ranger and other smaller pickups there. And a $2000 tax credit might be enough incentive to push pickup truck consumers to make the switch, to downsize their hps a little. Money does talk.

And once automakers have embraced such a path forward, could they really go back, especially when 2025 CAFE regulations will require such vehicles? Besides, since we’re already heading in that direction, why not let consumers help drive the way there? We’d probably end up hitting 2025 requirements long before 2025.

Of course, if we really wanted change, we’d devise some kind of gasoline tax, but that’s not going to happen. So, we’re stuck with regulators and tax incentives.

While plug-in tax credits are a good idea — barring a gas tax — they don’t go far enough. If we wait for plug-ins and CAFE to change the way America drives, it’ll still require decades to replace the legacy fleet that will already be on American roads in 2025. Achieving foreign oil dependence by 2030 is simply impossible based on the current trajectory.

Yet, by 2030 there will be more cars in China, based on today’s growth, than there was in the entire world in 2000. Add India and emerging markets, and heavy dependence on foreign oil in 2030 could be extremely volatile based upon today’s oil markets. And, I’ll bet we’ll experience serious oil spikes before 2020 — spikes that will be far more devastating than the last few.

Today, the world is between a rock and a hard place. Economic growth requires more energy, yet greater energy consumption is stifling economic growth.

The only way forward is serious change, and that starts by making the current fleet as fuel efficient as possible as quickly as possible, and a focus on plug-in tax credits and 2025 CAFE just won’t get the job done. Every resource available will be needed, as will a fundamental change in consumer psychology, and that’s why the US needs to reconsider plug-in tax credits and instead favor a more robust, competitive subsidy that encourages the greatest change across all segments in the quickest period of time.

The future begins today, not in 2025.

11:38 AM | 0 comments | Read More

Toyota Camry hybrid the best Camry available

Camry versus Camry hybrid

OK. When the conversation is hybrid cars, most think Toyota Prius first. So, I don’t think there has ever been any doubt that Toyota is still the indisputable hybrid king. However, when the Ford Fusion hybrid, for instance, squashed Camry hybrid fuel economy, it was a little easy to wonder if Toyota was losing some mojo.

Of course, the Camry hasn’t gone through a major update in years, unlike the Fusion. That is until now, and faith in Toyota’s hybrid prowess has been restored.

Not only does the new Camry hybrid offer the best fuel economy in its segment, it also offers the best price. Perhaps more interesting, however, the Camry hybrid might be the best Camry.

In the last few years, an undeniable trend has hit the auto industry: consumers are holding onto their vehicles longer. Keeping a car for 10 years is normal, and if you’re going to keep your Camry for 10 years, then why not buy a hybrid?

Unfortunately, there isn’t a real simple cost comparison between the conventional Camry and the Camry hybrid as the Camry hybrid offers performance more like the V6 Camry, rather than the base 4. So, I’m adding an extra $1000 to the cost of the Camry LE for comparison, as the base V6 only comes in the SE trim package and above. With extra amenities the SE starts at $26,640. Consequently, the extra $1000 seems fair, even low.

That makes the hybrid premium $2400, or less. For average drivers, the Camry hybrid should save at least $500 per year in fuel costs compared to the conventional version, at least. In fact, if you’re an urban driver, the savings could be significantly greater per year, to the tune of a few hundred dollars or more. Therefore, conservatively, the Camry hybrid provides a return on its hybrid investment in 5 years or less.

After 10 years, the Camry hybrid buyer is far ahead, especially if gas prices spike again — and probably again — over the course of the next decade. Likewise, if a battery breakthrough is achieved in the next decade, it might be cost-effective to convert the Camry hybrid into a plug-in hybrid.

Yes, most Camry consumers will balk at the extra upfront costs of the Camry hybrid, despite the long term advantages, which is why Toyota is only anticipating that the Camry hybrid will account for 10 percent of all Camry sales. Still, if you’re an urban driver that typically owns a vehicle for 5 years+, the Camry hybrid provides a great hedge against higher gasoline prices and the best overall value.

For consumers open-minded enough to think long term, the Camry hybrid is probably the best Camry.

11:15 AM | 0 comments | Read More

Audi A8 hybrid confirmed for 2012

Another luxury hybrid

Luxury hybrids. That’s certainly the trend of the last month with new hybrid offerings announced for Acura, Cadillac, Infiniti, and now Audi’s A8 hybrid, due in 2012.

The new A8 hybrid is said to achieve 37 mpg, although the EPA has not yet offered official numbers, while offering 245 hp.

Powered by a turbocharged 2.0-liter inline-four engine mated to an electric motor, the front wheel drive A8 can hit 62 mpg in 7.7 seconds. Additionally, the A8 can reach 62 mph using only electricity. At low speeds — under 37 mph — the A8 hybrid provides up to 1.86 miles of pure electric power.

Like many hybrids today, the A8 hybrid provides three different driving modes: EV, D for normal, and S for sportier acceleration.

No word yet on whether the A8 hybrid will make it to the US when it begins production in 2012.

10:14 AM | 0 comments | Read More