| Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR |
| Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan) | NA | NA | NA | 12.1 |
| Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | NA | NA | NA | 12.2 |
| Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 20% | 18% | 12% | 12.1 |
| Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 15% | 14% | 15% | 12.1 |
| Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 19% | 16% | NA | 12.3 |
| Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs) | 11% | 14% | 10% | 12.0 |
| Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) | NA | NA | NA | 11.9 |
| Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 11.9 |
| George Magliano (IHS Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 12.2 |
| Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power) | NA | NA | NA | 11.9 |
| Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 20% | 14% | 21% | 12.3 |
| Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 20% | 12% | 22% | 12.2 |
| Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 12.2 |
| Seth Weber (RBC) | 15% | 14% | 13% | 12.1 |
| Average | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12.1 |
After a tepid July, analysts predict a likewise unenthused August when it comes to new car sales in the U.S. The consensus of Bloomberg’s panel of 14 analysts is a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.1 million.
Asked for a reason, some blame the weather: Irene is the usual suspect. The real reasons are worries about the economy, financial markets, housing markets and jobs. Unless these are dispelled, people will keep what they have in the garage, and there is plenty.
TTAC will do its “Grade the analysts” race for the crystal ball of the month again. Maybe it was the threat of grades that narrows the range of projections: The lowest expected SAAR is 11.9, the highest is 12.3 – the latter estimate is by last month’s champion Jessica Caldwell. If she repeats he good performance, then the market will perform a bit better than estimated.
This time, we will also award points for those who are closest in the guesses of how Ford, GM and Chrysler performed. By examining the list, you will see some which will get demerits – no guts, no glory.
