TrueCar.com, the authority on new car pricing, trends and forecasting, today released its August 2011 sales and incentives forecast. The forecast shows the following:
• For August 2011, new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) is expected to be 1,076,989 units, up 8.0 percent from August 2010 and up 2.0 percent from July 2011 (on an unadjusted basis)
• The August 2011 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 12.2 million new car sales, flat from 12.2 million in July 2011 and up from 11.5 million in August 2010
• Retail sales are up 4.9 percent compared to August 2010 and up 3.1 percent from July 2011
• Fleet and rental sales are expected to make up 20 percent of total industry sales in August 2011
• The industry average incentive spending per unit will be approximately $2,663 in August 2011, which represents an increase of 3.0 percent from July 2011 and down 3.9 percent from August 2010
• Used car sales* are estimated to be 4,128,336, up 4.7 percent from August 2010 and down 8.2 percent from July 2011. The ratio of new to used is estimated to be 1:4 for August 2011
“The auto industry is a mixed bag this year, due to economic uncertainty; sales have improved compared to last year, but nowhere near the potential we had expected,” said Jesse Toprak, VP of Industry Trends and Insights for TrueCar.com. “The strongest correlation to new car sales is the Dow Jones Industrial Average and it was shaky and nervous in August.”
Forecasts for the top seven manufacturers for August 2011:
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| Incentive Spending Forecast | ||||
| Manufacturer | August 2011 Incentives | % Change vs. July 2011 | % Change vs. August 2010 | Total Spending |
| Chrysler | $3,511 | 2.7% | -5.6% | $415,965,907 |
| Ford | $2,722 | 1.6% | -8.3% | $480,684,472 |
| GM | $3,207 | 0.5% | -8.0% | $710,409,501 |
| Honda | $2,101 | 1.1% | -7.6% | $171,867,022 |
| Hyundai/Kia | $1,361 | 6.6% | -26.0% | $144,966,397 |
| Nissan | $2,903 | 10.9% | -6.5% | $258,920,220 |
| Toyota | $2,405 | 2.2% | 18.0% | $307,989,701 |
| Industry | $2,663 | 3.0% | -3.9% | $2,858,877,234 |
| August Sales Forecast by Brand | |||
| Brands | August 2011 Forecast | % Change vs. July 2011 | % Change vs. August 2010 |
| ACURA | 9,642 | 2.6% | -16.4% |
| AUDI | 10,802 | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| BMW | 21,854 | 2.1% | 11.8% |
| BUICK | 17,291 | 2.5% | 21.0% |
| CADILLAC | 12,984 | 16.8% | 2.3% |
| CHEVROLET | 155,487 | 4.4% | 17.9% |
| CHRYSLER | 17,214 | 11.6% | -4.0% |
| DODGE | 61,987 | 13.0% | 10.8% |
| FIAT | 3,249 | N/A | N/A |
| FORD | 168,931 | -2.1% | 17.4% |
| GMC | 35,741 | -5.7% | 37.7% |
| HONDA | 72,148 | 1.5% | -25.8% |
| HYUNDAI | 60,427 | 1.5% | 12.7% |
| INFINITI | 7,548 | 1.9% | -19.9% |
| JAGUAR | 1,089 | 10.7% | -23.0% |
| JEEP | 39,275 | 1.5% | 52.8% |
| KIA | 46,072 | 1.2% | 41.9% |
| LAND ROVER | 2,972 | 5.7% | 16.8% |
| LEXUS | 14,642 | 0.7% | -24.8% |
| LINCOLN | 7,646 | -2.1% | 18.9% |
| MINI | 4,984 | 5.8% | 12.6% |
| MAZDA | 20,248 | -2.6% | 2.6% |
| MERCEDES-BENZ | 23,058 | 11.2% | 17.2% |
| MITSUBISHI | 7,296 | -8.5% | 70.0% |
| NISSAN | 81,642 | 5.8% | 21.1% |
| PORSCHE | 2,429 | -12.2% | 19.5% |
| SUBARU | 20,189 | -7.1% | -9.2% |
| SAAB | 314 | -18.2% | 8.3% |
| SCION | 3,218 | -8.0% | -19.8% |
| SUZUKI | 2,342 | -4.3% | 28.0% |
| TOYOTA | 110,187 | -2.3% | -11.8% |
| VOLKSWAGEN | 28,023 | -3.6% | 22.6% |
| VOLVO | 5,784 | 3.4% | 30.2% |
| SMART | 274 | -16.2% | -38.8% |
“Product is king, not incentives, and this month really proves that,” said Kristen Andersson, Automotive Analyst at TrueCar.com. “Sales of Hyundai/Kia are up nearly 24 percent from last year, while incentives dropped by 26 percent, but on the other end of the spectrum, Toyota sales are down nearly 14 percent, even as they increased incentives by 18 percent.”
TrueCar.com bases its forecast on actual transaction data. The transaction data based forecast is refined by other current and historical factors that impact vehicle sales, including: sales, inventory, incentives, fuel prices, and macro economic data (major stock market indexes, consumer confidence, new home starts, and CPI). TrueCar.com does not adjust for selling days in year-over-year percentage change calculations.
*Used car sales figures include sales from franchise dealerships, independent dealerships and private party sales
